Food and Technology Fights Will Affect Our Future – Says Richard Sexton in a Fascinating New Book
Most people in the developed world worry much more about “what is a good diet” or “how to enjoy food and lose weight”, rather than “will there be enough food?”. The abundance of food in the last two to three centuries is the result of scientific discoveries and resulting innovations (selective breeding, fertilizer, pesticide, tractors, better storage) and expansion of agricultural land. It also resulted in negative environmental effects that must be addressed. But policymakers and the public largely assume that in the Malthusian race between population growth and technology, technology won. Still, food price inflation may affect elections. More than a billion people are food insecure, but food insecurity is seen as a problem of poverty and underutilization of resources. In the West, there are policies that aim to reduce food supplies.
Richard Sexton argues convincingly that we should worry about food availability given recent developments. His well-written and argued book (Food Fight: Misguided Policies, Supply Challenges, and the Impending Struggle to Feed a Hungry World), recently published by the University of California Press, makes the case that the Malthusian threat of the planet’s inability to feed human population is not over. Sexton identified several factors that contribute to this threat – and suggests that it can be overcome by smart policy.
Richard Sexton is one of the leading agricultural economists of our generation. He was born on a dairy farm and his experience and familiarity with rural life gives him an edge over many of us who grew in the cities. He’s a towering figure in the study of Industrial Organization of agriculture – understanding industry behavior, different forms of competition among agribusiness firms, and food and quality pricing. He’s also a rare academic leader – he was the Chair of the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at Davis for about 10 years and led it to become second to none. He also has the founding editor of ARE Update, a widely read bimonthly magazine that disseminates new findings on the economics of agriculture and the environment. Richard has a rare capacity to clarify complex issues and explain tough choices to the educated reader.
Sexton considers several threats to the agricultural system. First, is continued economic growth and income growth. As people in developing countries get wealthier, they expand the consumption of a meat-based diet. Animals need to be fed grains, and thus agricultural outputs need to grow by 50% or more, compared to existing carbon levels. Add to this, climatic change that tends to reduce yield significantly at some of the most productive locations in the world. Of course, adaptation and movement of crops is possible, but it’s costly and difficult. Some of the populations affected by these changes cannot move. In addition, changes in climate lead to movement of pests and diseases. These changes require adaptation which requires increased research and knowledge.
In addition to demographics and climatic changes, many of the challenges we face are the results of human choices. Sexton is very critical of biofuels that take good land out of production and frequently doesn’t contribute to reduce greenhouse gases. I don’t share much of his criticism, viewing biofuels as a work-in-progress, and believing that other regulations are preventing humanity to harness the potential of natural resources to provide much more than food. But Sexton’s argument is well-reasoned and may be valid if we don’t invest more in research and change our policies and regulations.
The beauty of the book is the analyses of mistaken policies, regulations, and perspectives. Sometimes, good intentions lead to bad policies or arrangements. Organic farming represents the desire to avoid toxic chemicals, but in most cases, the yields of organic systems are significantly below that of traditional systems, which leads to expansion of agricultural land and increased greenhouse gas emissions. He presents a wide range of evidence where organic farming may defeat the environmental purposes that it proclaims. Organic food may be desirable as a social signal, but to move to organic farming on a large scale may exacerbate food insecurity and deforestation. Sexton also criticizes the local food movement. It has its appeal, helping some local farmers to thrive, but the price on consumers is immense. Because certain regions have advantages in terms of agricultural productivity and technology, the overall cost on producing food, in terms of money and greenhouse gases may significantly increase by an emphasis on buying local.
Sexton is also critical of some of the regulation associated with animal welfare. He’s sympathetic to animal welfare arguments but suggests introducing policies that balance the interests of consumers, producers and animal welfare considering benefits, cost and risks. He is critical of some of the emerging policies today that sound good, but their real performance is shaky. Sexton is in his base when he’s able to identify some of the notions that may lead to misguided policy. One example is the concern about waste. Of course, there is a place for efficiency and reduced waste, but evidence shows that fighting food waste intensively may be costly and ineffective. He also argues that regulations that aim to artificially reduce consumption of meat or other products during certain times, generally are of limited value. A lot of policies that are introduced with good intentions, e.g., climate-smart agriculture, may not be in practice, as effective as claimed.
Richard is a strong believer in science-based agriculture. The book provides strong arguments against regulations that limit the use of modern technologies like gene editing and other biotechnologies. Relying on multiple studies, he documents the gains from adoption of some of the modern technologies, and huge loss, especially to developing countries, not using them. Again, good intentions to protect against unknown uncertainties, and the desire to eliminate risk have resulted in policies that are endangering humanity.
The main threats of the food system and human well-being is reduced investment in research and development in agriculture. While private investments in agricultural research might increase, it is not a substitute to public research. Public sector research makes the discovery that provides the foundation to applied research and commercialization by the private sector. Sexton brings multiple evidence and examples that we are all losing from failing to invest sufficiently in expanding our knowledge base and developing new technologies to support food production.
Sexton’s book is a rare economic book that is fun to read, in addition to being very informative. It addresses many of the controversies relating to agriculture and food in an approachable manner and I learned a lot, even though I may disagree with some of the points. The book is ideal as an introduction to agricultural economists in high school and colleges and can be a great gift for people that care about agriculture and the planet. I recommend Food Fight: Misguided Policies, Supply Challenges, and the Impending Struggle to Feed a Hungry World strongly.
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