Webinar: Farm Income and Financial Forecasts, September
2025 Update
Wednesday, August 27, 2025
Farm Income and Financial Forcasts - September 2025 Update
Monday, August 25, 2025
Members in the News: August 25, 2025
Richard Volpe, California Polytechnic State University
- “More
Tariff Price Hikes on the Way: How It'll Impact Grocery Bills”
By: Today Show – August 6, 2025 - “How
Trump's Tariffs May Make Your Coffee More Expensive”
By: Yahoo! Today – August 15, 2025 - “Food
Prices on the Rise”
By: CBS Evening News – August 18, 2025
Rabail Chandio, Iowa State University
“New Report Unpacks Foreign Interest and Land Leases in Iowa Farmland”
By: Farm Forum – August 15, 2025
“Information is relevant for all Iowa landowners. If you own farmland in Iowa, or are thinking about buying, selling or leasing, it’s smart to understand who else has an interest in that land. This information helps give Iowa producers and landowners a clearer picture of how much land is actually foreign-held, what it’s being used for and what kinds of ownership structures are involved.”
(Continued...)
Read more on: Farm Forum
Wenhui Feng, Tufts University
“Dollar Store Food Shopping Isn't Derailing American Diets: Study”
By: ABC News – August 11, 2025
"Purchases directly from dollar stores were less healthy, but even households that bought a lot from dollar stores had overall diets similar in healthfulness to those who bought less -- suggesting they may be getting healthier options from other places.”
(Continued...)
Read more on: ABC News or Science Magazine, The Hill
Shuoli Zhao, University of Kentucky
“UK Study: Cereals For Children Becoming Less Healthy”
By: LEX 18 – August 14, 2025
"This is very big topic of children for their health intake, and food intake. It's really under the umbrella of the connections between the market, individual choices, as well as the policy that motivates people to make individual choices.”
(Continued...)
Read more on: LEX 18
Kenneth Burdine, University of Kentucky
“Fast Food Burgers Could Soon Get More Expensive”
By: Newsweek – August 15, 2025
"Beef supplies are likely to remain tight in the near future. A lot of ground beef comes from cull cows and farmers have not been culling as many cows because the calf market has been so strong. We are also not seeing a lot of heifer retention [keeping young females for breeding purposes, for clarity] yet, which will have to happen in order to see the cowherd grow in size."
(Continued...)
Read more on: Newsweek
Daniel Mooney, Colorado State University
“Colorado River Water Conservation Program Remains Stalled in US House”
By: Colorado Sun - August 20, 2025
“Flexibility is important… There are a lot of programs that recommend fallowing or land retirement, but this is saying we need some kind of middle-ground.”
(Continued...)
Read more on: Colorado Sun or Colorado Politics
Yangxuan Liu, University of Georgia
“2024 Georgia Quality Cotton Award Winners Announced”
By: Farms.com – August 7, 2025
“The Georgia Quality Cotton Awards are co-sponsored by the Georgia Cotton Commission and Bayer Crop Science/Deltapine and administered by the University of Georgia (UGA) Cotton Team. Dr. Yangxuan Liu, Extension economist at the University of Georgia, conducted the analysis. Dr. Camp Hand presented the awards at the event in Statesboro on behalf of the UGA Cotton Team.”
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Read more on: Farms.com
Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology
“Groundwater at Breaking Point in South Asia”
By: Basis Point – August 22, 2205
“India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal are the world’s largest users of groundwater. Groundwater use here is vital for agricultural growth, food security, and rural livelihoods, particularly for smallholder farmers who dominate agriculture. However, widespread subsidies on energy, diesel and electricity, and the absence of direct pricing for water have created what recent research calls a conundrum.”
(Continued...)Read more on: Basis Point
Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Member Blog: David Zilberman
Food and Technology Fights Will Affect Our Future – Says Richard Sexton in a Fascinating New Book
Most people in the developed world worry much more about “what is a good diet” or “how to enjoy food and lose weight”, rather than “will there be enough food?”. The abundance of food in the last two to three centuries is the result of scientific discoveries and resulting innovations (selective breeding, fertilizer, pesticide, tractors, better storage) and expansion of agricultural land. It also resulted in negative environmental effects that must be addressed. But policymakers and the public largely assume that in the Malthusian race between population growth and technology, technology won. Still, food price inflation may affect elections. More than a billion people are food insecure, but food insecurity is seen as a problem of poverty and underutilization of resources. In the West, there are policies that aim to reduce food supplies.
Richard Sexton argues convincingly that we should worry about food availability given recent developments. His well-written and argued book (Food Fight: Misguided Policies, Supply Challenges, and the Impending Struggle to Feed a Hungry World), recently published by the University of California Press, makes the case that the Malthusian threat of the planet’s inability to feed human population is not over. Sexton identified several factors that contribute to this threat – and suggests that it can be overcome by smart policy.
Richard Sexton is one of the leading agricultural economists of our generation. He was born on a dairy farm and his experience and familiarity with rural life gives him an edge over many of us who grew in the cities. He’s a towering figure in the study of Industrial Organization of agriculture – understanding industry behavior, different forms of competition among agribusiness firms, and food and quality pricing. He’s also a rare academic leader – he was the Chair of the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at Davis for about 10 years and led it to become second to none. He also has the founding editor of ARE Update, a widely read bimonthly magazine that disseminates new findings on the economics of agriculture and the environment. Richard has a rare capacity to clarify complex issues and explain tough choices to the educated reader.
Sexton considers several threats to the agricultural system. First, is continued economic growth and income growth. As people in developing countries get wealthier, they expand the consumption of a meat-based diet. Animals need to be fed grains, and thus agricultural outputs need to grow by 50% or more, compared to existing carbon levels. Add to this, climatic change that tends to reduce yield significantly at some of the most productive locations in the world. Of course, adaptation and movement of crops is possible, but it’s costly and difficult. Some of the populations affected by these changes cannot move. In addition, changes in climate lead to movement of pests and diseases. These changes require adaptation which requires increased research and knowledge.
In addition to demographics and climatic changes, many of the challenges we face are the results of human choices. Sexton is very critical of biofuels that take good land out of production and frequently doesn’t contribute to reduce greenhouse gases. I don’t share much of his criticism, viewing biofuels as a work-in-progress, and believing that other regulations are preventing humanity to harness the potential of natural resources to provide much more than food. But Sexton’s argument is well-reasoned and may be valid if we don’t invest more in research and change our policies and regulations.
The beauty of the book is the analyses of mistaken policies, regulations, and perspectives. Sometimes, good intentions lead to bad policies or arrangements. Organic farming represents the desire to avoid toxic chemicals, but in most cases, the yields of organic systems are significantly below that of traditional systems, which leads to expansion of agricultural land and increased greenhouse gas emissions. He presents a wide range of evidence where organic farming may defeat the environmental purposes that it proclaims. Organic food may be desirable as a social signal, but to move to organic farming on a large scale may exacerbate food insecurity and deforestation. Sexton also criticizes the local food movement. It has its appeal, helping some local farmers to thrive, but the price on consumers is immense. Because certain regions have advantages in terms of agricultural productivity and technology, the overall cost on producing food, in terms of money and greenhouse gases may significantly increase by an emphasis on buying local.
Sexton is also critical of some of the regulation associated with animal welfare. He’s sympathetic to animal welfare arguments but suggests introducing policies that balance the interests of consumers, producers and animal welfare considering benefits, cost and risks. He is critical of some of the emerging policies today that sound good, but their real performance is shaky. Sexton is in his base when he’s able to identify some of the notions that may lead to misguided policy. One example is the concern about waste. Of course, there is a place for efficiency and reduced waste, but evidence shows that fighting food waste intensively may be costly and ineffective. He also argues that regulations that aim to artificially reduce consumption of meat or other products during certain times, generally are of limited value. A lot of policies that are introduced with good intentions, e.g., climate-smart agriculture, may not be in practice, as effective as claimed.
Richard is a strong believer in science-based agriculture. The book provides strong arguments against regulations that limit the use of modern technologies like gene editing and other biotechnologies. Relying on multiple studies, he documents the gains from adoption of some of the modern technologies, and huge loss, especially to developing countries, not using them. Again, good intentions to protect against unknown uncertainties, and the desire to eliminate risk have resulted in policies that are endangering humanity.
The main threats of the food system and human well-being is reduced investment in research and development in agriculture. While private investments in agricultural research might increase, it is not a substitute to public research. Public sector research makes the discovery that provides the foundation to applied research and commercialization by the private sector. Sexton brings multiple evidence and examples that we are all losing from failing to invest sufficiently in expanding our knowledge base and developing new technologies to support food production.
Sexton’s book is a rare economic book that is fun to read, in addition to being very informative. It addresses many of the controversies relating to agriculture and food in an approachable manner and I learned a lot, even though I may disagree with some of the points. The book is ideal as an introduction to agricultural economists in high school and colleges and can be a great gift for people that care about agriculture and the planet. I recommend Food Fight: Misguided Policies, Supply Challenges, and the Impending Struggle to Feed a Hungry World strongly.
Monday, August 18, 2025
Members in the News: August 18, 2025
David Ortega, Michigan
State University
William Masters,Tufts University
“Why Are Wholesale Vegetable Prices Spiking, and What's That Mean for Consumers?”
By: Marketplace – August 14, 2025
“Over a third of our vegetables are imported. On average, those veggies are incurring higher tariffs than a year ago. Things like tomatoes, asparagus, cauliflower, cucumbers. Mexican tomatoes, which are most of the fresh tomatoes sold in the U.S., are taxed at 17%. The PPI report only includes domestically produced vegetables, not imports. But by limiting overall supply. Tariffs can cause homegrown veggie prices to rise too.”
“ Wholesale prices — that is, what your grocery store pays to source those veggies — rose a whopping 38.9%. One reason? Wholesale vegetable prices are just volatile… So this is a number that just bounces up and down like a cardiac chart at the doctor's office. And the current bounce up is not outlandish.”
(Continued...)
Read more on: Marketplace
Amitrajeet Batabyal, Rochester Institute of Technology
- “Is
Making Public Transportation Free a Good Idea?”
By: Rochester Beacon – August 6, 2025 - “Why
Corruption Makes Universal Basic Income Better Than Targeted Welfares“
By: Basis Point – August 5, 2025
Wendong Zhang, Cornell University
“China Trade Still Uncertain As Administration Announces Deals”
By: Iowa Farmer Today – August 17, 2025
“These trade deals help diffuse the tension and bring more certainty for many sectors, including agriculture… while the 15% tariff on European Union goods coming into the United States is lower than numbers mentioned in negotiations, it is still higher than the previous average tariff rate, meaning importing goods from Europe will cost more. It’s lower than expected, but it’s still an increase in the cost and trade barriers relative to half a year ago.”
(Continued...)
Read more on: Iowa Farmer Today
Jerome Dumortier, Indiana University Indianapolis
“Why Higher Beef Prices Aren’t Actually Good News for Climate Change”
By: Sentient Media – August 11, 2025
“Beef consumption in the U.S. is what’s called very inelastic. Even if prices increase — and we do see an increase in beef prices right now — there is not really a decline in the demand.”
(Continued...)
Read more on: Sentient Media
Christopher Wolf, Cornell University
“Half of Farmers Are Over Retirement Age. Is Our Food System at Risk?”
By: The Review – August 12, 2025
“The broader consequences aren’t yet fully known. It's not clear that it's really a food security issue, It's more about a way of life as far as keeping the farms around. Farms end up being a major economic driver in rural communities, so if you don't have as many farms around, then you lose local businesses.”
(Continued...)
Read more on: The Review
Madhu Khanna, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
“Decarbonize Agriculture By Expanding Policies Aimed at Low-Carbon Biofuels”
By: Seed Daily – August 15, 2025
"Biofuel markets can be a pathway decarbonize agriculture as a whole. Currently, our biofuel policies don't reward farmers for adopting climate-smart practices. For example, they treat all corn grown for the corn-ethanol market the same, whether or not the farmers adopt those types of practices. By accounting for differences in practices implemented at the farm level and paying a premium for corn grown with climate-smart practices for corn ethanol, biofuel policies can incentivize adoption of these practices."
(Continued...)Read more on: Seed Daily
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